A Bayesian argument against miracles
For quite a while I've been interested in Bayesian reasoning/statistics, even though I've never understood this subject very well. Now I'm reading Steven Pinker's new book, "Rationality." It has a chapter on Beliefs and Evidence that focuses on Bayesian reasoning. Which is, basically (this is an introduction to an online tutorial): Bayes' rule or Bayes' theorem is the law of probability governing the strength of evidence -- the rule saying how much to revise our probabilities (change our minds) when we learn a new fact or observe new evidence. "Prior probability" in the Bayesian perspective is our credence in an…
